V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,966.74%
decreased by 408.00%
1 Week
2,187.04%
decreased by 187.70%
1 Month
3,437.07%
increased by 1,062.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1918 | 11.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6266 | 14.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 592.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2072 | -5.07*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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