V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
389.52%
1 Week
389.55%
1 Month
389.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 14474624 trading days (~57439.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 135% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0263 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5113 | 1.93* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4887 | 1.85* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2226 | 2.52** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8847 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14474624 days
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