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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

830.22%

decreased by 39.91%

1 Week

830.23%

decreased by 39.90%

1 Month

830.30%

decreased by 39.83%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Trinseo PLC APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 45208070 trading days (~179397.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 35% more than positive returns

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0517
5.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0922
10.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9078
119.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0748
4.89***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9850
11.03***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

45208070 days