V-Lab
Trinseo PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
830.22%
1 Week
830.23%
1 Month
830.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 45208070 trading days (~179397.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 35% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0517 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0922 | 10.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9078 | 119.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0748 | 4.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9850 | 11.03*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
45208070 days
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