V-Lab
Trinseo PLC EGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
639.99%
1 Week
647.72%
1 Month
680.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 101% more than positive returns
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0119 | 1.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 13.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 523.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0357 | -4.16*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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