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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

395.13%

decreased by 20.45%

1 Week

393.98%

decreased by 21.60%

1 Month

389.46%

decreased by 26.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

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graph of Trinseo PLC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

20.0018
9.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0519
47.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
3,414.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7801
58.80***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

230 days