V-Lab
Trinseo PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
395.13%
decreased by 20.45%
1 Week
393.98%
decreased by 21.60%
1 Month
389.46%
decreased by 26.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 20.0018 | 9.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 47.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 3,414.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7801 | 58.80*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
230 days
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