V-Lab
Trinseo PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
467.88%
increased by 18.47%
1 Week
450.02%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
391.66%
decreased by 57.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4653 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8382 | 16.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0494 | 1.07 |
| γ2 | 0.0139 | 0.19 |
| γ3 | -0.1313 | -2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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