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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

753.12%

decreased by 66.37%

1 Week

726.59%

decreased by 92.90%

1 Month

636.40%

decreased by 183.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trinseo PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4529
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1192
2.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8428
17.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0487
0.96
γ20.0188
0.24
γ3-0.1380
-2.83***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days