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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

467.88%

increased by 18.47%

1 Week

450.02%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

391.66%

decreased by 57.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trinseo PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4653
4.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1166
2.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8382
16.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0494
1.07
γ20.0139
0.19
γ3-0.1313
-2.99***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days