V-Lab
Calidi Biotherapeutics Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
90.69%
decreased by 4.32%
1 Week
121.18%
increased by 26.17%
1 Month
200.28%
increased by 105.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 286 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4008 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.4473 | 4.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5503 | 5.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 15.8212 | 4.14*** |
| γ2 | -22.5742 | -3.84*** |
| γ3 | 20.6952 | 2.65*** |
| γ4 | -25.8246 | -2.24** |
| γ5 | 11.0630 | 0.94 |
| γ6 | 1.2678 | 0.13 |
| γ7 | -0.4738 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | 0.5677 | 0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.8247 | -0.20 |
0.998
Persistence286d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4008 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4473 | 4.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5503 | 5.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 15.8212 | 4.14*** |
| γ2 | -22.5742 | -3.84*** |
| γ3 | 20.6952 | 2.65*** |
| γ4 | -25.8246 | -2.24** |
| γ5 | 11.0630 | 0.94 |
| γ6 | 1.2678 | 0.13 |
| γ7 | -0.4738 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | 0.5677 | 0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.8247 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
286 days
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