V-Lab
Calidi Biotherapeutics Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
114.33%
decreased by 8.00%
1 Week
150.84%
increased by 28.51%
1 Month
247.03%
increased by 124.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 385 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~385 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3884 | 5.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.4715 | 4.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5268 | 4.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 9.8346 | 2.21** |
| γ2 | -12.1629 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 11.8208 | 2.43** |
| γ4 | -23.0415 | -7.17*** |
| γ5 | 18.3187 | 4.67*** |
| γ6 | -7.7868 | -1.91* |
| γ7 | 5.8377 | 1.98** |
| γ8 | -3.9539 | -2.30** |
0.998
Persistence385d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3884 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4715 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5268 | 4.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 9.8346 | 2.21** |
| γ2 | -12.1629 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 11.8208 | 2.43** |
| γ4 | -23.0415 | -7.17*** |
| γ5 | 18.3187 | 4.67*** |
| γ6 | -7.7868 | -1.91* |
| γ7 | 5.8377 | 1.98** |
| γ8 | -3.9539 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
385 days
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