Calidi Biotherapeutics Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
94.40%
1 Week
125.40%
1 Month
619.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3381 trading days (~13.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 362% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6381 | 11.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6117 | 31.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -6.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 6.86*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0890 | 4.41*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9110 | 35.73*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3381 days
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