V-Lab
QTREX Quantum Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
180.05%
decreased by 128.85%
1 Week
192.40%
decreased by 116.50%
1 Month
196.90%
decreased by 112.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5387 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3628 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0455 | 0.72 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -17.0588 | -1.82* |
| γ2 | 25.1626 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -13.1623 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 6.9006 | 2.05** |
| γ5 | 0.4796 | 0.12 |
| γ6 | -7.6903 | -1.97** |
| γ7 | 13.7814 | 3.34*** |
| γ8 | -17.2259 | -4.21*** |
| γ9 | 16.9530 | 5.07*** |
| γ10 | -12.2388 | -5.39*** |
Persistence:
0.408
Half-life:
1 days
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