V-Lab
QTREX Quantum Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
369.66%
increased by 168.63%
1 Week
265.19%
increased by 64.16%
1 Month
208.32%
increased by 7.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6099 | 2.37** |
| αARCH | 0.4034 | 2.56** |
| βGARCH | 0.0321 | 0.63 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -12.4437 | -1.76* |
| γ2 | 18.9598 | 1.71* |
| γ3 | -12.1262 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 11.4865 | 2.59*** |
| γ5 | -11.5695 | -3.55*** |
| γ6 | 12.0217 | 4.04*** |
| γ7 | -11.8434 | -4.12*** |
| γ8 | 10.3622 | 4.53*** |
| γ9 | -7.3321 | -5.10*** |
0.435
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6099 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4034 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0321 | 0.63 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -12.4437 | -1.76* |
| γ2 | 18.9598 | 1.71* |
| γ3 | -12.1262 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 11.4865 | 2.59*** |
| γ5 | -11.5695 | -3.55*** |
| γ6 | 12.0217 | 4.04*** |
| γ7 | -11.8434 | -4.12*** |
| γ8 | 10.3622 | 4.53*** |
| γ9 | -7.3321 | -5.10*** |
Persistence:
0.435
Half-life:
1 days
Other QTREX Quantum Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities