V-Lab
QTREX Quantum Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
161.78%
increased by 22.10%
1 Week
173.37%
increased by 33.69%
1 Month
177.70%
increased by 38.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6044 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.3843 | 2.53** |
| βGARCH | 0.0367 | 0.64 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -12.5208 | -1.72* |
| γ2 | 19.0547 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -12.2367 | -1.78* |
| γ4 | 11.7186 | 2.65*** |
| γ5 | -11.8104 | -3.58*** |
| γ6 | 12.1489 | 4.05*** |
| γ7 | -11.8354 | -4.13*** |
| γ8 | 10.3098 | 4.46*** |
| γ9 | -7.4196 | -4.61*** |
0.421
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6044 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3843 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0367 | 0.64 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -12.5208 | -1.72* |
| γ2 | 19.0547 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -12.2367 | -1.78* |
| γ4 | 11.7186 | 2.65*** |
| γ5 | -11.8104 | -3.58*** |
| γ6 | 12.1489 | 4.05*** |
| γ7 | -11.8354 | -4.13*** |
| γ8 | 10.3098 | 4.46*** |
| γ9 | -7.4196 | -4.61*** |
Persistence:
0.421
Half-life:
1 days
Other QTREX Quantum Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities