QTREX Quantum Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
158.60%
decreased by 16.96%
1 Week
186.71%
increased by 11.15%
1 Month
197.24%
increased by 21.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5303 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3576 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0885 | 0.92 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -17.8866 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 25.7672 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -11.8160 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 3.7809 | 0.95 |
| γ5 | 4.8948 | 0.94 |
| γ6 | -12.2237 | -2.66*** |
| γ7 | 16.9961 | 3.97*** |
| γ8 | -18.0289 | -4.56*** |
| γ9 | 15.4333 | 4.75*** |
| γ10 | -10.3202 | -3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.446
Half-life:
1 days
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