V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.80%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
17.89%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
18.19%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3381 | 9.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0518 | 6.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9175 | 72.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0279 | 3.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0542 | -4.48*** |
| γ3 | 0.0409 | 3.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.0130 | -1.27 |
| γ5 | -0.0038 | -0.52 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3381 | 9.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0518 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9175 | 72.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0279 | 3.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0542 | -4.48*** |
| γ3 | 0.0409 | 3.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.0130 | -1.27 |
| γ5 | -0.0038 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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