V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.00%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
21.85%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
21.35%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3415 | 9.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 72.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0284 | 3.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.0548 | -4.49*** |
| γ3 | 0.0409 | 3.92*** |
| γ4 | -0.0125 | -1.22 |
| γ5 | -0.0043 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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