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McDonald's Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

24.81%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Week

23.26%

decreased by 3.65%

1 Month

18.98%

decreased by 7.93%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC

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graph of McDonald's Corp APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 15% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 15% more than positive returnsδ = 0.67 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0274
5.95***
αARCH0.1698
17.89***
βGARCH0.8211
79.38***
γleverage0.1043
4.69***
δpower0.6679
3.93***

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0274
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1698
17.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8211
79.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1043
4.69***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6679
3.93***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days