V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.49%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
22.07%
decreased by 2.79%
1 Month
18.14%
decreased by 6.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 15% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0275 | 23.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1716 | 72.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8195 | 316.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0998 | 18.71*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6803 | 16.02*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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