V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
24.81%
1 Week
23.26%
1 Month
18.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 15% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0274 | 5.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1698 | 17.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8211 | 79.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.1043 | 4.69*** |
| δpower | 0.6679 | 3.93*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0274 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1698 | 17.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8211 | 79.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1043 | 4.69*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6679 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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