Pasqal Holding SA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
75.77%
1 Week
57.92%
1 Month
35.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.74 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1869 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.8416 | 4.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1584 | 0.97 |
| γleverage | -0.3072 | -1.77* |
| δpower | 0.7373 | 1.75* |
0.824
Persistence4d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1869 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8416 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1584 | 0.97 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3072 | -1.77* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7373 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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