V-Lab
Pasqal Holding SA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
405.96%
increased by 306.00%
1 Week
406.02%
increased by 306.06%
1 Month
406.26%
increased by 306.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0947 | 1.90* |
| αARCH | 1.3034 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.0994 | 0.39 |
| γleverage | -0.8056 | -0.36 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0947 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.3034 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0994 | 0.39 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8056 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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