V-Lab
Pasqal Holding SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
45.74%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
51.98%
increased by 5.73%
1 Month
56.95%
increased by 10.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 319% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 319% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.1569 | 7.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 11.49*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2212 | 3.65*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0562 | 1.18 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9438 | 322.02*** |
0.407
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1569 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 11.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2212 | 3.65*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0562 | 1.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9438 | 322.02*** |
Persistence:
0.407
Half-life:
1 days
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