Pasqal Holding SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
56.30%
decreased by 89.58%
1 Week
90.61%
decreased by 55.27%
1 Month
168.42%
increased by 22.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~63013 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3294 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1,263.2241 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 881.1035 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 889.8322 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -606.7148 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 46.7298 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -113.5019 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 122.2780 | 0.02 |
| γ8 | 964.9534 | 0.07 |
| γ9 | -1,891.7879 | -0.23 |
| γ10 | 1,132.8481 | 0.45 |
1.000
Persistence63013d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3294 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1,263.2241 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 881.1035 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 889.8322 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -606.7148 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 46.7298 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -113.5019 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 122.2780 | 0.02 |
| γ8 | 964.9534 | 0.07 |
| γ9 | -1,891.7879 | -0.23 |
| γ10 | 1,132.8481 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
63013 days
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