V-Lab
Galera Therapeutics Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
194.31%
increased by 27.05%
1 Week
172.36%
increased by 5.10%
1 Month
152.10%
decreased by 15.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8735 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 3.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5591 | 3.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9865 | -0.79 |
| γ2 | 3.8087 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -6.4281 | -2.37** |
| γ4 | 6.5223 | 2.24** |
| γ5 | -4.0243 | -1.44 |
| γ6 | 0.2921 | 0.12 |
| γ7 | 2.0414 | 1.11 |
| γ8 | -1.7195 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.676
Half-life:
2 days
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