V-Lab
Obsidian Therapeutics Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
139.55%
decreased by 3.63%
1 Week
149.51%
increased by 6.33%
1 Month
157.35%
increased by 14.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8819 | 5.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.1352 | 3.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5475 | 4.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6556 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 3.2038 | 1.49 |
| γ3 | -6.0385 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 6.5350 | 2.37** |
| γ5 | -4.4935 | -1.66* |
| γ6 | 0.9123 | 0.37 |
| γ7 | 1.7917 | 1.03 |
| γ8 | -1.8618 | -1.55 |
0.683
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8819 | 5.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1352 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5475 | 4.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6556 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 3.2038 | 1.49 |
| γ3 | -6.0385 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 6.5350 | 2.37** |
| γ5 | -4.4935 | -1.66* |
| γ6 | 0.9123 | 0.37 |
| γ7 | 1.7917 | 1.03 |
| γ8 | -1.8618 | -1.55 |
Persistence:
0.683
Half-life:
2 days
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