V-Lab
Mobile-Health Network Soltns Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
81.50%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
86.19%
increased by 4.79%
1 Month
89.21%
increased by 7.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0198 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2366 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3825 | 2.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 18.8942 | 1.12 |
| γ2 | 0.8129 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -52.1551 | -1.99** |
| γ4 | 66.2590 | 2.78*** |
| γ5 | -57.9270 | -3.56*** |
| γ6 | 31.1769 | 2.65*** |
| γ7 | -5.9692 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.619
Half-life:
1 days
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