V-Lab
Mobile-Health Network Soltns Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
93.59%
increased by 20.08%
1 Week
91.62%
increased by 18.11%
1 Month
90.27%
increased by 16.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1296 | 1.69* |
| αARCH | 0.2304 | 2.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3876 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 21.1019 | 1.34 |
| γ2 | -5.3302 | -0.21 |
| γ3 | -43.6699 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 58.4721 | 2.31** |
| γ5 | -54.9064 | -3.10*** |
| γ6 | 33.6080 | 2.72*** |
| γ7 | -9.1905 | -1.21 |
0.618
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1296 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2304 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3876 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 21.1019 | 1.34 |
| γ2 | -5.3302 | -0.21 |
| γ3 | -43.6699 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 58.4721 | 2.31** |
| γ5 | -54.9064 | -3.10*** |
| γ6 | 33.6080 | 2.72*** |
| γ7 | -9.1905 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.618
Half-life:
1 days
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