V-Lab
Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
150.38%
increased by 6.57%
1 Week
169.90%
increased by 26.09%
1 Month
230.07%
increased by 86.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2,231.1386 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3219 | 79.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9942 | 945.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6042 | 60.22*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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