V-Lab
Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
154.67%
decreased by 14.23%
1 Week
172.04%
increased by 3.14%
1 Month
225.58%
increased by 56.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysv = 2.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,266.3764 | 1.04 |
| αARCH | 0.3175 | 18.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9903 | 113.37*** |
| νDF | 2.6488 | 13.41*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,266.3764 | 1.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3175 | 18.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9903 | 113.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6488 | 13.41*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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