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V-Lab

Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

140.12%

increased by 54.50%

1 Week

160.78%

increased by 75.16%

1 Month

223.31%

increased by 137.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 10, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 daysv = 2.61 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2,485.3728
1.38
αARCH0.3204
20.04***
βGARCH0.9949
287.03***
νDF2.6062
14.99***

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2,485.3728
1.38
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3204
20.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
287.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6062
14.99***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days