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Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

154.67%

decreased by 14.23%

1 Week

172.04%

increased by 3.14%

1 Month

225.58%

increased by 56.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 10, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysv = 2.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1,266.3764
1.04
αARCH0.3175
18.50***
βGARCH0.9903
113.37***
νDF2.6488
13.41***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1,266.3764
1.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3175
18.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9903
113.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6488
13.41***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days