Mobile-Health Network Soltns GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
154.42%
decreased by 88.52%
1 Week
175.02%
decreased by 67.92%
1 Month
235.86%
decreased by 7.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 2.59 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1,221.8365 | 0.99 |
| αscore | 0.3268 | 18.87*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9875 | 83.95*** |
| νDF | 2.5938 | 14.37*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1,221.8365 | 0.99 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.3268 | 18.87*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 83.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5938 | 14.37*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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