V-Lab
Micron Technology Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
57.39%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Week
57.41%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Month
57.52%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 daysv = 6.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.3683 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.0430 | 8.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 225.56*** |
| νDF | 6.6456 | 1.63 |
0.995
Persistence143d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3683 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 225.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6456 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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