General Electric Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.79%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
21.88%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
22.22%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 daysv = 6.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.5928 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.0590 | 12.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9954 | 314.91*** |
| νDF | 6.1172 | 2.98*** |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5928 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0590 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9954 | 314.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1172 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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