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V-Lab

Jaguar Uranium Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

64.39%

decreased by 2.60%

1 Week

64.68%

decreased by 2.31%

1 Month

65.80%

decreased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Jaguar Uranium Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 4.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run92.1728
2.30**
αscore0.0552
1.35
βpersistence0.9990
216.33***
νDF4.8363
1.13

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

92.1728
2.30**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0552
1.35
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
216.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8363
1.13

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days