V-Lab
Osisko Gold Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
51.32%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Week
53.53%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
57.84%
increased by 4.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.1323 | 1.38 |
| αARCH | 0.0761 | 1.14 |
| βGARCH | 0.8905 | 10.53*** |
| νDF | 4.6527 | 0.40 |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.1323 | 1.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0761 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 10.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6527 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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