Osisko Gold Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
46.55%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
49.41%
increased by 2.93%
1 Month
55.31%
increased by 8.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.9304 | 1.32 |
| αARCH | 0.0757 | 1.26 |
| βGARCH | 0.9055 | 11.86*** |
| νDF | 4.6596 | 0.44 |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.9304 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 1.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9055 | 11.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6596 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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