Osisko Gold Group Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
55.62%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
59.10%
increased by 4.47%
1 Month
61.61%
increased by 6.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.5608 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.1380 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5170 | 3.25*** |
| γleverage | -2.3925 | -2.95*** |
0.655
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5608 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1380 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5170 | 3.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.3925 | -2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.655
Half-life:
2 days
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