V-Lab
Osisko Gold Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
57.68%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
59.48%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
63.41%
increased by 4.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8619 | 6.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0756 | 2.14** |
| βGARCH | 0.8335 | 10.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0208 | -1.29 |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8619 | 6.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 2.14** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8335 | 10.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0208 | -1.29 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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