BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
52.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
52.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
52.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4972 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7661 | 0.59 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 90.6575 | 3.98*** |
| γ2 | -133.1445 | -4.26*** |
| γ3 | 56.8110 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -18.2811 | -1.26 |
0.766
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4972 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7661 | 0.59 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 90.6575 | 3.98*** |
| γ2 | -133.1445 | -4.26*** |
| γ3 | 56.8110 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -18.2811 | -1.26 |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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