V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.75%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
36.68%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
38.00%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6290 | 9.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 6.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7001 | 16.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0670 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.1127 | 1.98** |
| γ3 | -0.0852 | -2.02** |
| γ4 | 0.0070 | 0.19 |
| γ5 | 0.1654 | 4.86*** |
| γ6 | -0.3018 | -9.38*** |
| γ7 | 0.2548 | 6.40*** |
| γ8 | -0.0612 | -1.17 |
| γ9 | -0.0714 | -1.32 |
| γ10 | 0.0610 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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