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Kelly Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

36.93%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Week

37.30%

decreased by 1.64%

1 Month

37.85%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kelly Services Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6284
9.17***
αARCH0.1168
6.38***
βGARCH0.7131
17.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0669
-1.83*
γ20.1135
2.01**
γ3-0.0905
-2.14**
γ40.0213
0.57
γ50.1438
4.14***
γ6-0.2852
-8.68***
γ70.2549
6.36***
γ8-0.0736
-1.37
γ9-0.0620
-1.10
γ100.0598
1.45

0.830

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6284
9.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1168
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7131
17.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0669
-1.83*
γ20.1135
2.01**
γ3-0.0905
-2.14**
γ40.0213
0.57
γ50.1438
4.14***
γ6-0.2852
-8.68***
γ70.2549
6.36***
γ8-0.0736
-1.37
γ9-0.0620
-1.10
γ100.0598
1.45

Persistence:

0.830

Half-life:

4 days