V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.19%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
36.99%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
38.16%
increased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6311 | 9.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1179 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7082 | 17.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0656 | -1.78* |
| γ2 | 0.1104 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | -0.0842 | -1.98** |
| γ4 | 0.0085 | 0.23 |
| γ5 | 0.1612 | 4.69*** |
| γ6 | -0.2982 | -9.19*** |
| γ7 | 0.2555 | 6.39*** |
| γ8 | -0.0657 | -1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.0671 | -1.22 |
| γ10 | 0.0590 | 1.47 |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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