V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
44.60%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
47.08%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
50.19%
increased by 4.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5774 | 8.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1238 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6766 | 15.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0975 | -2.75*** |
| γ2 | 0.1587 | 2.91*** |
| γ3 | -0.1094 | -2.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.0177 | 0.49 |
| γ5 | 0.1662 | 5.01*** |
| γ6 | -0.3083 | -9.82*** |
| γ7 | 0.2572 | 6.68*** |
| γ8 | -0.0469 | -0.94 |
| γ9 | -0.1197 | -2.45** |
| γ10 | 0.1885 | 3.41*** |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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