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V-Lab

Kelly Services Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

44.60%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

47.08%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

50.19%

increased by 4.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kelly Services Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5774
8.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1238
6.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6766
15.27***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0975
-2.75***
γ20.1587
2.91***
γ3-0.1094
-2.71***
γ40.0177
0.49
γ50.1662
5.01***
γ6-0.3083
-9.82***
γ70.2572
6.68***
γ8-0.0469
-0.94
γ9-0.1197
-2.45**
γ100.1885
3.41***

Persistence:

0.800

Half-life:

3 days