V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.51%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
38.68%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
41.62%
increased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1088 | 13.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5605 | 14.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0208 | 2.30** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5393 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3267 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5889 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.680
Half-life:
2 days
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