V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.77%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Week
40.71%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Month
40.52%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.52) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2141 | 18.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 26.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 233.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5248 | 7.83*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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