Kelly Services Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
38.17%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
38.21%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
38.35%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 4.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.2786 | 1.36 |
| αscore | 0.0645 | 6.29*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9839 | 83.18*** |
| νDF | 4.8279 | 2.02** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.2786 | 1.36 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0645 | 6.29*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9839 | 83.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8279 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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