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Kelly Services Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

38.17%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Week

38.21%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Month

38.35%

decreased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kelly Services Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 4.83 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.2786
1.36
αscore0.0645
6.29***
βpersistence0.9839
83.18***
νDF4.8279
2.02**

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.2786
1.36
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0645
6.29***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9839
83.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8279
2.02**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days