V-Lab
Kelly Services Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
38.18%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
38.47%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
39.56%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 105% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.01 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0363 | 12.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0508 | 21.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9484 | 379.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3398 | 8.19*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0127 | 23.94*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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