V-Lab
Marex Group Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
57.96%
1 Week
57.85%
1 Month
57.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 25, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1646 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.1072 | 2.19** |
| βGARCH | 0.8667 | 11.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.6306 | 1.75* |
| δpower | 0.9552 | 2.49** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1646 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1072 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8667 | 11.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6306 | 1.75* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9552 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
Other Marex Group Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities