Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Marex Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

61.48%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

63.57%

increased by 1.54%

1 Month

66.25%

increased by 4.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Marex Group Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 25, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4784
3.11***
αARCH0.0647
1.74*
βGARCH0.7353
4.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-31.3682
-2.80***
γ251.6305
3.18***
γ3-36.6783
-3.01***
γ426.5340
2.43**
γ5-14.8169
-1.41
γ610.9767
0.93
γ7-10.9332
-1.24

0.800

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4784
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0647
1.74*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7353
4.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-31.3682
-2.80***
γ251.6305
3.18***
γ3-36.6783
-3.01***
γ426.5340
2.43**
γ5-14.8169
-1.41
γ610.9767
0.93
γ7-10.9332
-1.24

Persistence:

0.800

Half-life:

3 days