V-Lab
Society Pass Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,357.68%
decreased by 778.90%
1 Week
2,316.02%
decreased by 820.56%
1 Month
2,200.03%
decreased by 936.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4684 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3970 | 1.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5399 | 1.80* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 10.2206 | 1.66* |
| γ2 | -9.9381 | -1.11 |
| γ3 | 2.2548 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -2.4197 | -0.41 |
| γ5 | -2.8092 | -0.57 |
| γ6 | 6.4300 | 1.33 |
| γ7 | -10.4363 | -1.35 |
| γ8 | 19.3394 | 1.68* |
| γ9 | -20.5878 | -2.17** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other Society Pass Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities