V-Lab
Society Pass Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,660.79%
decreased by 1,472.75%
1 Week
4,489.88%
decreased by 1,643.66%
1 Month
3,961.33%
decreased by 2,172.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4967 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3791 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5678 | 1.85* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 10.2751 | 1.53 |
| γ2 | -9.9802 | -1.04 |
| γ3 | 2.2293 | 0.34 |
| γ4 | -2.3632 | -0.39 |
| γ5 | -2.9496 | -0.57 |
| γ6 | 6.6332 | 1.32 |
| γ7 | -10.5412 | -1.31 |
| γ8 | 19.4077 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -20.9995 | -2.09** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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