V-Lab
Society Pass Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,355.73%
decreased by 1,783.30%
1 Week
3,527.36%
decreased by 2,611.67%
1 Month
2,095.34%
decreased by 4,043.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1636 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2812 | 2.41** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5011 | 3.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 1.8373 | 4.35*** |
| γ2 | -2.0164 | -3.48*** |
| γ3 | 0.0366 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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