V-Lab
Society Pass Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10,050.47%
decreased by 293.77%
1 Week
11,104.23%
increased by 759.99%
1 Month
11,806.96%
increased by 1,462.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5540 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.5447 | 2.20** |
| βGARCH | 0.0957 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.6848 | 1.82* |
| γ2 | -8.1944 | -1.06 |
| γ3 | -0.3321 | -0.06 |
| γ4 | 0.6547 | 0.13 |
| γ5 | -4.8903 | -0.99 |
| γ6 | 6.7666 | 1.12 |
| γ7 | -9.6955 | -1.39 |
| γ8 | 12.8561 | 2.06** |
| γ9 | -12.3813 | -1.82* |
| γ10 | 34.9955 | 3.61*** |
0.640
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5540 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5447 | 2.20** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0957 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.6848 | 1.82* |
| γ2 | -8.1944 | -1.06 |
| γ3 | -0.3321 | -0.06 |
| γ4 | 0.6547 | 0.13 |
| γ5 | -4.8903 | -0.99 |
| γ6 | 6.7666 | 1.12 |
| γ7 | -9.6955 | -1.39 |
| γ8 | 12.8561 | 2.06** |
| γ9 | -12.3813 | -1.82* |
| γ10 | 34.9955 | 3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.640
Half-life:
2 days
Other Society Pass Inc Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities