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Society Pass Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,660.79%

decreased by 376.00%

1 Week

1,654.91%

decreased by 381.88%

1 Month

1,631.90%

decreased by 404.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Society Pass Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~154 daysv = 2.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2,286.6156
1.83*
αARCH0.1403
15.59***
βGARCH0.9955
531.79***
νDF2.2052
74.58***

0.996

Persistence

154d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2,286.6156
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1403
15.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9955
531.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2052
74.58***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

154 days