V-Lab
Society Pass Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,927.31%
decreased by 1,080.31%
1 Week
4,114.08%
increased by 106.46%
1 Month
5,154.10%
increased by 1,146.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.5840 | 1.36 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -1.17 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.45 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7426 | 1.33 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2574 | 2.61*** |
0.334
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5840 | 1.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -1.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7426 | 1.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2574 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.334
Half-life:
1 days
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