V-Lab
Society Pass Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,700.92%
decreased by 996.29%
1 Week
5,701.15%
decreased by 996.06%
1 Month
5,702.03%
decreased by 995.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 9.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2527 | 5.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7243 | 39.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0459 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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