CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
267.89%
1 Week
281.28%
1 Month
327.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2,820.8556 | 1.36 |
| αscore | 0.2711 | 14.81*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9941 | 251.34*** |
| νDF | 2.5605 | 12.37*** |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2,820.8556 | 1.36 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2711 | 14.81*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 251.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5605 | 12.37*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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