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CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

175.14%

decreased by 65.10%

1 Week

202.44%

decreased by 37.80%

1 Month

283.99%

increased by 43.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~119 daysv = 2.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3,651.3944
1.35
αARCH0.2664
14.26***
βGARCH0.9942
260.05***
νDF2.3933
15.51***

0.994

Persistence

119d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3,651.3944
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2664
14.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9942
260.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3933
15.51***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

119 days