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CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

234.67%

increased by 52.90%

1 Week

250.21%

increased by 68.44%

1 Month

302.95%

increased by 121.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 daysv = 2.59 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3,242.6692
1.40
αARCH0.2753
14.42***
βGARCH0.9950
310.56***
νDF2.5857
9.85***

0.995

Persistence

139d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3,242.6692
1.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2753
14.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
310.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5857
9.85***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

139 days