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CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

267.89%

decreased by 65.44%

1 Week

281.28%

decreased by 52.05%

1 Month

327.68%

decreased by 5.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 daysv = 2.56 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2,820.8556
1.36
αscore0.2711
14.81***
βpersistence0.9941
251.34***
νDF2.5605
12.37***

0.994

Persistence

116d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2,820.8556
1.36
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.2711
14.81***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9941
251.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5605
12.37***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days