V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
175.14%
decreased by 65.10%
1 Week
202.44%
decreased by 37.80%
1 Month
283.99%
increased by 43.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~119 daysv = 2.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3,651.3944 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.2664 | 14.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9942 | 260.05*** |
| νDF | 2.3933 | 15.51*** |
0.994
Persistence119d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3,651.3944 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2664 | 14.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9942 | 260.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3933 | 15.51*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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