V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
193.86%
increased by 2.48%
1 Week
175.37%
decreased by 16.01%
1 Month
130.79%
decreased by 60.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3656 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4316 | 19.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5684 | 26.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1007 | 3.07*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1841 | 7.10*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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