Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
33.59%
1 Week
30.64%
1 Month
26.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 11% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2549 | 6.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2738 | 19.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5716 | 26.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1076 | -4.35*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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