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V-Lab

MBIA Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

38.76%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

39.38%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

41.41%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MBIA Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1139
4.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0813
6.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8941
63.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0502
1.58
γ2-0.0138
-0.29
γ3-0.1024
-3.13***
γ40.1805
5.33***
γ5-0.2330
-5.85***
γ60.1615
3.68***
γ7-0.0016
-0.03
γ8-0.1572
-1.87*

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days