V-Lab
MBIA Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
38.76%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
39.38%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
41.41%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1139 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8941 | 63.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0502 | 1.58 |
| γ2 | -0.0138 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | -0.1024 | -3.13*** |
| γ4 | 0.1805 | 5.33*** |
| γ5 | -0.2330 | -5.85*** |
| γ6 | 0.1615 | 3.68*** |
| γ7 | -0.0016 | -0.03 |
| γ8 | -0.1572 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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