V-Lab
MBIA Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
43.32%
1 Week
43.40%
1 Month
43.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0130 | 7.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0076 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9695 | 854.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0457 | 19.24*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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