CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	26
αARCH	0.1003	4.75***
βGARCH	0.6507	14.92***
γleverage	0.0741	2.22**
λ₁tau intercept	0.0099	1.65*
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0326	4.79***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9674	146.89***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	26
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1003	4.75***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6507	14.92***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0741	2.22**
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0099	1.65*
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0326	4.79***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9674	146.89***

V-Lab

MBIA Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other MBIA Inc Analyses