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V-Lab

MBIA Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

32.10%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

34.13%

increased by 0.85%

1 Month

36.07%

increased by 2.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MBIA Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 74% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0999
4.74***
βGARCH0.6516
14.99***
γleverage0.0744
2.23**
λ₁tau intercept0.0099
1.65*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0328
4.80***
λ₃tau persistence0.9672
146.36***

0.789

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0999
4.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6516
14.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0744
2.23**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0099
1.65*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0328
4.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9672
146.36***

Persistence:

0.789

Half-life:

3 days