MBIA Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.91%
1 Week
36.06%
1 Month
36.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution. The volatility power δ = 1.56 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0120 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9695 | 177.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.5724 | 4.15*** |
| δpower | 1.5602 | 7.09*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0120 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9695 | 177.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5724 | 4.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5602 | 7.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities