MBIA Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.13%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
30.27%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
30.85%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 2.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0442 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9558 | 167.28*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 2.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9558 | 167.28*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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