V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.76%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
29.60%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
29.94%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4058 | 1.95* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1131 | 0.54 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3445 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0688 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.462
Half-life:
1 days
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