V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
28.66%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
29.73%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
30.18%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3068 | 2.03** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1337 | 0.58 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.4551 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0495 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.374
Half-life:
1 days
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