V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
29.75%
increased by 1.35%
1 Week
29.77%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
29.77%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1283 | 7.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 1.58 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0314 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.092
Half-life:
0 days
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