V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.69%
increased by 2.91%
1 Week
30.98%
increased by 3.20%
1 Month
31.17%
increased by 3.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8724 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6158 | 17.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4918 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.616
Half-life:
1 days
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