V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
27.70%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
29.74%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
30.94%
increased by 2.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8987 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0984 | 2.33** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5926 | 16.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4301 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.593
Half-life:
1 days
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