Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
30.55%
increased by 2.86%
1 Week
30.98%
increased by 3.29%
1 Month
31.28%
increased by 3.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9075 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6231 | 17.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4547 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.623
Half-life:
1 days
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