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V-Lab

Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

30.55%

increased by 2.86%

1 Week

30.98%

increased by 3.29%

1 Month

31.28%

increased by 3.59%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9075
7.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1010
2.40**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6231
17.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4547
0.94

Persistence:

0.623

Half-life:

1 days