V-Lab
Rocket One Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
101.96%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
147.93%
increased by 45.64%
1 Month
242.62%
increased by 140.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2224 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5864 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3800 | 3.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8841 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | 2.2682 | 0.37 |
| γ3 | -0.5592 | -0.12 |
| γ4 | 0.9800 | 0.30 |
| γ5 | -0.6458 | -0.29 |
| γ6 | -2.7315 | -0.94 |
| γ7 | 6.9893 | 1.92* |
| γ8 | -8.8623 | -2.14** |
| γ9 | 7.4327 | 1.91* |
| γ10 | -4.0030 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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