Rocket One Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
88.45%
decreased by 21.59%
1 Week
112.36%
increased by 2.32%
1 Month
164.14%
increased by 54.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9359 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.5602 | 3.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3939 | 3.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7768 | -0.54 |
| γ2 | 2.1527 | 0.38 |
| γ3 | -0.4648 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | 0.8792 | 0.26 |
| γ5 | -1.0002 | -0.45 |
| γ6 | -1.7438 | -0.71 |
| γ7 | 5.9677 | 2.01** |
| γ8 | -8.4788 | -2.45** |
| γ9 | 7.4914 | 2.20** |
| γ10 | -3.9807 | -1.79* |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9359 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5602 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3939 | 3.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7768 | -0.54 |
| γ2 | 2.1527 | 0.38 |
| γ3 | -0.4648 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | 0.8792 | 0.26 |
| γ5 | -1.0002 | -0.45 |
| γ6 | -1.7438 | -0.71 |
| γ7 | 5.9677 | 2.01** |
| γ8 | -8.4788 | -2.45** |
| γ9 | 7.4914 | 2.20** |
| γ10 | -3.9807 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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