V-Lab
Rocket One Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
128.62%
increased by 20.88%
1 Week
169.58%
increased by 61.84%
1 Month
262.73%
increased by 154.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3501 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6006 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3695 | 2.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.9117 | -0.50 |
| γ2 | 2.2835 | 0.35 |
| γ3 | -0.5661 | -0.12 |
| γ4 | 0.9861 | 0.31 |
| γ5 | -0.4643 | -0.20 |
| γ6 | -3.1143 | -0.98 |
| γ7 | 7.2332 | 1.87* |
| γ8 | -8.6597 | -1.98** |
| γ9 | 7.0259 | 1.69* |
| γ10 | -3.8295 | -1.28 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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