V-Lab
Rocket One Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
168.37%
decreased by 75.02%
1 Week
191.32%
decreased by 52.07%
1 Month
250.11%
increased by 6.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1084 | 1.07 |
| αARCH | 0.5743 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3883 | 3.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8443 | -0.52 |
| γ2 | 2.2282 | 0.37 |
| γ3 | -0.5219 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | 0.9420 | 0.28 |
| γ5 | -0.8252 | -0.37 |
| γ6 | -2.2743 | -0.85 |
| γ7 | 6.5752 | 1.97** |
| γ8 | -8.8239 | -2.29** |
| γ9 | 7.6432 | 2.09** |
| γ10 | -4.1263 | -1.70* |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1084 | 1.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5743 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3883 | 3.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8443 | -0.52 |
| γ2 | 2.2282 | 0.37 |
| γ3 | -0.5219 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | 0.9420 | 0.28 |
| γ5 | -0.8252 | -0.37 |
| γ6 | -2.2743 | -0.85 |
| γ7 | 6.5752 | 1.97** |
| γ8 | -8.8239 | -2.29** |
| γ9 | 7.6432 | 2.09** |
| γ10 | -4.1263 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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